Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Will there ever be another European War?

Since the events of World War II (1939-1945) there has been very little prevalence of war between the borders of Europe. Complete Introduction

To begin, the devastation of the Second World War has led to measures being taken by nation states to prevent the occurrence of war within Europe. This was mostly achieved by the creation of Inter Governmental Organizations (IGO's), mostly regarding The United Nations (UN). However, there can also be seen to be tactics to combat conflict between states in institutions such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which through both trade agreements and military alliances help to further the liberal approach to negotiating peace through cooperation, For instance, the United Nations was set up in October 1945 to promote international peacekeeping and collective security, At it's conception, the UN has a total of 51 member states, which in 2014 has risen to 193 member states with 2 observer nations. This body comprises of four major organs; The General Assembly; The Security Council; The Secretariat and The Social and Economic Council (ECOSOC) which collectively ensure; international peacekeeping, social and economic development around the world, the value of fundamental human rights and create a platform for international cooperation. This has evidently been a much greater success than the failed League of Nations established after World War I, which failed at preventing the following World War in 1939. This, I believe has prevented tensions in Europe as the nations develop a harmony of interests and therefore gain a common ideology based on the need for democracy and capitalism.

Furthermore, the idea of trade liberalism to ensure peace and stability between nations has resulted in the creation of the EU, the replacement of the EEC (European Economic Community)  formed in November 1993. The EU bases it's operations on the deterritorialization of borders between European states, now complete with 28 member nations. The most prominent policies of the European Union include free trade with no taxes or tariffs on imported goods, furthered through the free movement of labour and people. This means migration between the states has some of the highest rates in the world. Finally, the common international laws provide a basis for legal justice, for instance, 50% of UK laws stem from the EU while Germany's laws are 70% derived from the trade bloc. This shows the political stronghold of the European Union's power over European countries.

According to Samuel P. Huntington, there is an emergence of a new scale of conflict centred around the world's primary civilizations. In his book "The Clash of Civilizations", published in 1993, Huntington claims that wars were no longer based on regional powers but fought over society, culture and religion. By this understanding, it can be surmised that wars between less powerful states are considered historical or as proxy wars with the rise in ideological conflict; for instance, the Iraq War (2003-2011) can be seen as a struggle between the USA and the Middle East, while the Cold War has been the only conflict in recent decades that has torn the composition of Europe by Eastern Bloc and the West. This shows how wars are not fought on a regional scale any more, but on a global scale. Furthermore, Europe is a group of solely democratic nations in past decades which align with conditions of the "Democratic Peace Thesis" that state that two democratic countries have never been to war. This further emphasises the unlikelihood that there will ever be tensions among Europe that will ever again result in war.

Ultimately, there are strong conclusions to be drawn that indicate that the nation states of Europe will never go to war again, at least on the scale that was the World Wars, if not due to wars between civilization, the spread of democracy and the fall of communism and IGO's furthering of international cooperation, then also due to the changing nature of war which dictates an escalation in weapons and terms of warfare, meaning that wars do not evolve to the point of "mutually assured destruction" any more. This leaves us with the idea of peace among European states for now, if not the long term.











Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Does the Bretton Woods Conference still provide stability for the World Economy?

The Bretton Woods Conference was a gathering of 44 nations in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA to agree to regulate and consolidate a new global financial order regarding the conclusion of the Second World War on 22nd July 1944. This conference set up three major global institutions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (formerly the IBRD) and later, the World Trade Organization (WTO). The main goals of these institutions was to set up a stable exchange rate, encourage international cooperation and trade liberalisation.

The Bretton Woods system was deemed successful for decades until it's eventual breakdown in 1971 after the Vietnam War and the US trade deficit, the US dollar became disengaged from the gold standard under Richard Nixon and the fixed exchange rates turned into floating rates where value of currency was determined by the success of trade. Ultimately, this led to the introduction of the Euro in Europe due to the belief that a universal monetary cooperation was important and the creation of the G7 formed of the world's leading economies in the 1980's. However, some argue that due to the remains of this system carrying on in terms of it's institutions and that it's core principles and the organizations it set up still provides the global economy with stability today.

After the global financial crisis of 2008, there were frequent talks on how the global economy must adapt to survive, with many economists calling for the reintroduction of the Bretton Woods system, supported by former French President Nicolas Sarkozy who claims "we must rethink the financial system from scratch, as at Bretton Woods." Furthermore, in the 2009 meeting of the G20, it was proposed that the establishment of realigned exchange rates be reintroduced to help devalue currencies in deficit bound nations and value surplus nations upward. This is evidence that the Bretton Woods system could still be effective and applicable to modern day economic issues.

Furthermore, the outcome of the Bretton Woods system resulted in heightened interdependence and international cooperation. This is still shown in the efforts of the United Nations today in terms of it's efforts in peacekeeping and ECOSOC's devotion to social and economic progression. Despite the reputations of IGO's such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as well as TNC's regarding neo-colonialism and exploitation of deficit and periphery nations, they also provide FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in the form of short and long term loans to stabilise exhange rates, fund development projects and ultimately stimulate economies and encourage trade.