Friday, March 6, 2015

Should Iran be allowed Nuclear Weaponry?

Currently, there are nine states with nuclear weapons capabilities, those of which being the P5 of the UN Security Council (US, Russia, China, UK and France) as well as Pakistan, India, North Korea and Israel. Iran is a nation that is currently known not to be possessing nuclear weapon capabilities or Weapons of Mass Destruction and has previously been a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Israel is a nation which has previously been in conflict with Iran and is currently engaging in political tensions with Iran regarding it's Nuclear Weapons Program, from the Israeli perspective, Republic of Iran is an aggressor which as a threat to Israel (particularly since the beginning of an indirect conflict or proxy war between the states in 2005) could use the Nuclear Weapons, although this is unlikely. There is debate over allowing nuclear weapons into the wrong hands, or even allowing two conflicting states to possess them. Not only is Israel in conflict with much of the Middle East due to religious and political reasons throughout much of it's history since 1948, but the concept of two opposing nations having nuclear weapons is dangerous. as the situation of stockpiling became an issue during the Cold War (even in 2002. Russia and the US still had the control of 98% of the Earth's nuclear weapon arsenal). This is evidence that a volatile country such as Iran is an example of how the gaining of nuclear weapons capabilties is seen as offensive rather than defensive, which could result in an impending security dilemma, whereby as we allow horizontal proliferation to take place, we are allowing a security risk and the possibility of Iran to grow in terms of vertical proliferation, provoking a conflict within the current state of an acknowledged Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) which has inadvertently created peace within our current system. This begs the question. are we allowing nuclear weapons into the wrong hands? By allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons, are we threatening the current system we have in place?

However, there are arguments for the state of Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, firstly there are states in history such as North Korea and Pakistan which have obtained access to nuclear weapons without the authority of the UN, before the Indo-Pakistan War in 1965, Bhutto claimed "If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass and leaves for a thousand years, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own. The Christians have the bomb, the Jews have the bomb and now the Hindus have the bomb. Why not the Muslims too have the bomb?" This highlights the issue that there is a power held by the current nuclear capable countries to give and take this power from other nations, under the Security Council's Permanent Five nations. However, there are nations that in the light of others military armament or the stockpiling of nuclear weapons, feel as though there is a right to protecting themselves against an external threat. Therefore, despite the belief that nuclear weapons are aggressive in their use, it is also noted that in modern history, there has been no event of nuclear weaponry used in warfare despite unstable countries or dictatorships having access to them. It can be seen that the point of nuclear destruction is a deterrent of war itself and is in a sense, a form of security or defense. For this reason, is it fair that other nations are undertaking nuclear proliferation, despite not being authorized with this power, while other nations are not allowed this security themselves.

This being said, the allowance of Iran to have nuclear weapons is a risk in itself due to Iran's standing in the Middle East. There is a possible domino effect of this horizontal proliferation and Iran is a nation at odds with much of the Middle Eastern nations, which themselves have proven to be a significant power in economy, resources and military, making the Middle East either an asset to the West, or a problem. As seen in the Iraq War or the threat of ISIS and Al Qaeda, the Arab nations are in a state of turmoil. Despite this not being an immediate threat to Iran, the mostly Shia state has had conflict in the 80% Sunni Middle East in the past, highlighted in the Gulf War (or the Iran-Iraq War) of 1980, or the oil war with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations. This could lead to nuclear weapons becoming a demand of many Middle Eastern nations as this could be seen as an offensive act, further accentuating the risk of nuclear power falling into the wrong hands. Furthermore, Iran themselves have been anti-West, particularly since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, whereby the pro-Western Shah was forced to flee by rebels. This shows that the inclusion of Iran into the 'nuclear club' could result in a backlash or a wave of unforeseen nuclear proliferation demands that the UN could not predict. 

Ultimately, in my perspective Iran should not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, if not for the threat that Iran poses itself, but the backlash it may have for the West and the UN within the Middle East, allowing Iran into the 'nuclear club' could be a threat to an emerging multi-polar world' which has previously based it's co-operation on the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction, the threat of a nuclear winter and the downgrading and decreasing of nuclear weapon stockpiling since the end of the Cold War.



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